Hydrological model for the forecast of recessive flows: the case of the “Jequetepeque” river, upstream of the Gallito Ciego dam, Peru

The research proposes a hydrological model to forecast recessive flows and it estimates depletion coefficient for the "Jequetepeque" river, water from top of "Gallito Ciego",Contumazá, Peru. Recessive were used third break point flow hydrograph "Yonán" station period 1988-2019. An exponential category (ALVI) was used. Ranges coefficients 0.0148 < α 0.0003 day-1, calibration 0.005 day-1were identified. proposed model, ALVI, validated, is based on statistical indicators, such as: NS (0.84), RMSE (0.62), R2(0.97), EEE (0.66) IWM (0.84). indicators indicated high degree efficiency, isinside within metric ranges indicators. validated: Qb=Q0 / (1+e [1.32*Ln ((Q0/Qf) -1)-(0.00049*Ln(A)+0.0057)*t]). observed simulated identical tothe non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test. RStudio Cloud program with significance level 0.05, determined median that are similar or identical.